In addition to the 'shortages and soaring prices for oil, diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, liquified natural gas and fertilizer' you list, we need to add Helium:
*Qatar accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s helium supply, produced as a byproduct of its natural-gas processing. As supply tightens, the effects are already rippling through global technology supply chains. Helium plays a critical role in semiconductor manufacturing, supporting processes from ultra-low-temperature cooling to highly precise fabrication. ⚡️The greater concern, however, lies in healthcare. MRI scanners rely on liquid helium to keep their superconducting magnets at extremely low temperatures; without a stable supply of helium, MRI machines can't operate⚡️ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/04/beyond-oil-lng-commodities-impacted-closure-hormuz-strait/
We shouldn’t limit ourselves to urea or helium. Sour crude produces the feed stocks necessary to refine copper, nickel, and cobalt amongst other things. In local news for my area, the plastic bag manufacturers say that the price of resin has doubled. If you nose around for the prices of plastic resin, they have jumped quite significantly. Look around you and ask yourself what isn’t plastic. It is in everything, especially in packaging where it’s weight durability and low cost makes much of the global economy go round and round.
Taiwan has managed to secure helium from US sources oaring the US is a major producer of helium so maybe tech has dodged one bullet, and many dozens headed their way.
Just how do people think they are going to get their power grids or steel or even the everyday objects fashioned from plastic without the raw material materials to fashion them?
Trump (and I assume the US Cabinet) believe that the suffering will all happen in the rest of the world, particularly Europe. They are about to be surprised. From the geopolitical point of view, this is a schoolboy error. It has massively undermined the USA.
WH interest doesn’t go beyond how well they are doing. You have one lot who think Jesus is just around the corner and you have the guys from Silicon Valley who believe the singularity is just around the corner, each with the same material consequence to everyone else.
Nah don't be fooled by the bluster , this is all part of a long American strategy of cutting the rest of the world off from energy sources they don't control, it's the same reason they started the war in Ukraine and blew up nordstream
I just read your latest piece on the Israel blockade and the economic realities behind the bluster. It is one of the clearest and most grounded assessments I have seen on this subject in a long time. Your ability to cut through the rhetoric and lay bare the structural economic and financial dynamics is truly impressive — and carries great weight coming from someone with your depth of experience and integrity.
Thank you for writing it. In a time when so much commentary is clouded by emotion or political positioning, your work stands out as both honest and illuminating. It helps many of us see the larger picture more clearly.
I hold your voice in high regard, and I’m grateful that you continue to share these clear-eyed analyses with the world.
Oh Neil…thank you so much. I so appreciate hearing that from you - because it can be lonely out there. If I knew how to I would pour out a bunch of emoji ‘hearts’….
Thank you so much for your kind words — they truly touched me.
I completely understand that it can feel lonely out there when you’re speaking clearly against the dominant narratives. Your voice is one of the few that consistently cuts through with both intellectual rigour and moral courage. Knowing that your work lands with people who value it deeply is, I hope, a small but meaningful reminder that you are not alone.
Please consider this message as a whole bouquet of emoji hearts coming your way — with deep respect and gratitude.
Wishing you continued strength and clarity in the important work you do.
Thanks for your take on this, Ann. What works in a reality tv studio doesn’t work in real life, and the chaotic stupidity of Trump and his fellow travellers is going, at best, to cost us all very dear. I only hope that it doesn’t result in something much worse.
Don’t fool yourselves. This is just a pause in hostilities. There’s another round of killing and destruction coming, possibly an invasion attempt. Neither side is going to waive the white flag. The US and Israel, because they’re sick fucks with their religious insanity and drunk on the wet dream of world domination and Iran because they’re fighting an existential war.
“ In other words, without the active support provided to the wider US economy by Silicon Valley tech lords and their fast deflating bubble, ”
I would never have chosen the words support or provide for their activities. One doesn’t usually apply that kind of terminology to the enemies of mankind.
The connection between elevated asset valuations and the war's fiscal sustainability is the most structurally original observation in this piece. Elevated equity prices generate capital gains tax revenue and suppress the urgency of fiscal constraints by keeping the wealth effect intact. The bubble functioned as an implicit fiscal subsidy for expenditures that would otherwise have triggered the bond market response months earlier.
the structural risk in "prepare for a global slump" has a specific sequencing problem. If the AI valuation correction and the war's economic damage arrive in the same window, the fiscal response capacity is compromised at exactly the moment it is most needed. Revenue contracts as capital gains evaporate while spending demands from the aftermath compound. Two crises that were separated in time converge into one fiscal event, and the policy toolbox is thinner than it was for either crisis alone.
The argument you present here is that Trump has made a strategic mistake in Iran encouraged by the far-right Netanyahu government. Journalists have certainly been predicting that Trump will over-reach since November 2024. This argument would make more sense if Trump was close to a normal president. Instead the argument that he is a far-right ethno-nationalist autocrat (ie neo-fascist) determined to end American democracy - before the American people fully wake up to the MAGA confidence trick - is more convincing to me.
Judging from a normative viewpoint Trump's 2.0 administration is incompetent, but from an extreme political viewpoint he is following the logic of neo-fascism. His next step will be to renew and greatly escalate the attack on Iran’s theocratic dictatorship and the county’s infrastructure, but definitely without an invasion and regime change. He will claim concern about the global effects of the blockade, and the loss of American military lives.
The logic here is that this will give credibility to the idea among Americans, that illogical Iranian Shiite fanatics will be so enraged they will risk revenge on American soil. Trump’s real enemy is not Iran, but the American people who will not vote to give him the power he needs to destroy democracy. By flattening Iran and pulverizing its dictatorship he will provide credibility for an act of terrorism that eclipses 9/11, and simultaneously provide post de facto justification for the war on Iran.
Iran could for example be put in the frame for a 7/4 attack using a smuggled 15kt 1960s technology HEU bomb that Iran could in theory construct. If it exploded in a major city this could kill up to 200,000 Americans. The surge in ethno-nationalism would obviously be greater than after 9/11, and Trump’s party would gain enough power to pass bills in 2027 that would make rigging the 2028 elections possible.
The background is that highly indebted Americans have uniquely in their history given power to a malignant narcissist, who has the backing of a super rich elite who fear long overdue economic reform, and people still expect politics within normal limits. Putin could supply the small retro nuclear bomb - there are technical problems to this of nuclear forensics - no space here. A fake conventional 7/4 attack with Iran in the frame to boast support for Trump could be organized, with the intention of it being uncovered just before detonation; this would provide cover for the real more deadly attack. Nobody asking questions will be heard in the emergency that follows.
In addition to the 'shortages and soaring prices for oil, diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, liquified natural gas and fertilizer' you list, we need to add Helium:
*Qatar accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s helium supply, produced as a byproduct of its natural-gas processing. As supply tightens, the effects are already rippling through global technology supply chains. Helium plays a critical role in semiconductor manufacturing, supporting processes from ultra-low-temperature cooling to highly precise fabrication. ⚡️The greater concern, however, lies in healthcare. MRI scanners rely on liquid helium to keep their superconducting magnets at extremely low temperatures; without a stable supply of helium, MRI machines can't operate⚡️ https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/04/beyond-oil-lng-commodities-impacted-closure-hormuz-strait/
Thank you Meg…quite right.
We shouldn’t limit ourselves to urea or helium. Sour crude produces the feed stocks necessary to refine copper, nickel, and cobalt amongst other things. In local news for my area, the plastic bag manufacturers say that the price of resin has doubled. If you nose around for the prices of plastic resin, they have jumped quite significantly. Look around you and ask yourself what isn’t plastic. It is in everything, especially in packaging where it’s weight durability and low cost makes much of the global economy go round and round.
Taiwan has managed to secure helium from US sources oaring the US is a major producer of helium so maybe tech has dodged one bullet, and many dozens headed their way.
Just how do people think they are going to get their power grids or steel or even the everyday objects fashioned from plastic without the raw material materials to fashion them?
Trump (and I assume the US Cabinet) believe that the suffering will all happen in the rest of the world, particularly Europe. They are about to be surprised. From the geopolitical point of view, this is a schoolboy error. It has massively undermined the USA.
WH interest doesn’t go beyond how well they are doing. You have one lot who think Jesus is just around the corner and you have the guys from Silicon Valley who believe the singularity is just around the corner, each with the same material consequence to everyone else.
Nah don't be fooled by the bluster , this is all part of a long American strategy of cutting the rest of the world off from energy sources they don't control, it's the same reason they started the war in Ukraine and blew up nordstream
Dear Ann,
I hope this message finds you well.
I just read your latest piece on the Israel blockade and the economic realities behind the bluster. It is one of the clearest and most grounded assessments I have seen on this subject in a long time. Your ability to cut through the rhetoric and lay bare the structural economic and financial dynamics is truly impressive — and carries great weight coming from someone with your depth of experience and integrity.
Thank you for writing it. In a time when so much commentary is clouded by emotion or political positioning, your work stands out as both honest and illuminating. It helps many of us see the larger picture more clearly.
I hold your voice in high regard, and I’m grateful that you continue to share these clear-eyed analyses with the world.
With respect and appreciation,
Niel, editor
eaarthnet & theaicommons
Can I recommend this by the distinguished economist, Brad de Long…
https://braddelong.substack.com/p/how-is-donald-trump-managing-to-lose
Or try this:
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-trump-administration-is-a-loser
Thanks Ann, for the recommends, I have read and now subscribe for further posts.
Oh Neil…thank you so much. I so appreciate hearing that from you - because it can be lonely out there. If I knew how to I would pour out a bunch of emoji ‘hearts’….
Dear Ann,
Thank you so much for your kind words — they truly touched me.
I completely understand that it can feel lonely out there when you’re speaking clearly against the dominant narratives. Your voice is one of the few that consistently cuts through with both intellectual rigour and moral courage. Knowing that your work lands with people who value it deeply is, I hope, a small but meaningful reminder that you are not alone.
Please consider this message as a whole bouquet of emoji hearts coming your way — with deep respect and gratitude.
Wishing you continued strength and clarity in the important work you do.
Warmly,
Niel
eaarthnet
Thanks for your take on this, Ann. What works in a reality tv studio doesn’t work in real life, and the chaotic stupidity of Trump and his fellow travellers is going, at best, to cost us all very dear. I only hope that it doesn’t result in something much worse.
Me too….
So what does that mean, exactly, dear Ann, prepare for a global recession? How does one do that, individually? Next post?
This is excellent and thoughtful. I am just discovering you!
Great news, bullies always get what they deserve
Thank you for this interesting analysis.
They have to come up with a dance to memorialize this historic moment. "Sleep Walk" maybe. The "Walking Dead" - better.
In case subscribers missed this by Brad de Long:
https://braddelong.substack.com/p/how-is-donald-trump-managing-to-lose
And this by Daniel Drezner….
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-trump-administration-is-a-loser
I hope you’re right but what do you think of this:
https://charliepgarcia.substack.com/p/the-blockade-is-the-smokescreen-kharg-island-invasion?r=y829&utm_medium=ios
Don’t fool yourselves. This is just a pause in hostilities. There’s another round of killing and destruction coming, possibly an invasion attempt. Neither side is going to waive the white flag. The US and Israel, because they’re sick fucks with their religious insanity and drunk on the wet dream of world domination and Iran because they’re fighting an existential war.
“ In other words, without the active support provided to the wider US economy by Silicon Valley tech lords and their fast deflating bubble, ”
I would never have chosen the words support or provide for their activities. One doesn’t usually apply that kind of terminology to the enemies of mankind.
The connection between elevated asset valuations and the war's fiscal sustainability is the most structurally original observation in this piece. Elevated equity prices generate capital gains tax revenue and suppress the urgency of fiscal constraints by keeping the wealth effect intact. The bubble functioned as an implicit fiscal subsidy for expenditures that would otherwise have triggered the bond market response months earlier.
the structural risk in "prepare for a global slump" has a specific sequencing problem. If the AI valuation correction and the war's economic damage arrive in the same window, the fiscal response capacity is compromised at exactly the moment it is most needed. Revenue contracts as capital gains evaporate while spending demands from the aftermath compound. Two crises that were separated in time converge into one fiscal event, and the policy toolbox is thinner than it was for either crisis alone.
Here is a way for world to end blockade.
https://howardsbend.com/2026/05/03/the-world-needs-to-act/
The argument you present here is that Trump has made a strategic mistake in Iran encouraged by the far-right Netanyahu government. Journalists have certainly been predicting that Trump will over-reach since November 2024. This argument would make more sense if Trump was close to a normal president. Instead the argument that he is a far-right ethno-nationalist autocrat (ie neo-fascist) determined to end American democracy - before the American people fully wake up to the MAGA confidence trick - is more convincing to me.
Judging from a normative viewpoint Trump's 2.0 administration is incompetent, but from an extreme political viewpoint he is following the logic of neo-fascism. His next step will be to renew and greatly escalate the attack on Iran’s theocratic dictatorship and the county’s infrastructure, but definitely without an invasion and regime change. He will claim concern about the global effects of the blockade, and the loss of American military lives.
The logic here is that this will give credibility to the idea among Americans, that illogical Iranian Shiite fanatics will be so enraged they will risk revenge on American soil. Trump’s real enemy is not Iran, but the American people who will not vote to give him the power he needs to destroy democracy. By flattening Iran and pulverizing its dictatorship he will provide credibility for an act of terrorism that eclipses 9/11, and simultaneously provide post de facto justification for the war on Iran.
Iran could for example be put in the frame for a 7/4 attack using a smuggled 15kt 1960s technology HEU bomb that Iran could in theory construct. If it exploded in a major city this could kill up to 200,000 Americans. The surge in ethno-nationalism would obviously be greater than after 9/11, and Trump’s party would gain enough power to pass bills in 2027 that would make rigging the 2028 elections possible.
The background is that highly indebted Americans have uniquely in their history given power to a malignant narcissist, who has the backing of a super rich elite who fear long overdue economic reform, and people still expect politics within normal limits. Putin could supply the small retro nuclear bomb - there are technical problems to this of nuclear forensics - no space here. A fake conventional 7/4 attack with Iran in the frame to boast support for Trump could be organized, with the intention of it being uncovered just before detonation; this would provide cover for the real more deadly attack. Nobody asking questions will be heard in the emergency that follows.